The weather remained extremely pleasant in Islamabad the whole past week. Thick clouds shielded the federal capital against the increasingly hot sunrays and drizzles doused a fire on the Margallas sparked by the rising temperatures or an opportunist timber mafia working too early to steal the precious wood during the approaching summers.
The rains washed away the dust from winter-dried tree and expedited decomposing process of rotten leaves and the withered flowers, which have lost their early bloom because of unseasonal storm, which mercilessly shipped the region. Fresh grass started sprouting from the soil and the landscapes along the Islamabad highways reinvigorated. The winds blowing from the snowy northern mountains brought the temperature down from 33 degree Celsius to 13 degree Celsius, all of a suddenly.
But the political mercury kept rising with each passing day. In the drawing rooms, parties and behind the closed doors, the discussions and debates continued to turn hotter and enthusiastic over several questions pertaining to the upcoming political weather in the country.
When the Supreme Court will issue its verdict on the Panama leaks? Who will be affected by this judgement and to what extent? When the inquiry report of the ‘Dawn leaks’ will be released and who will be held responsible for this? Will Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif succeed to make inroads in Punjab and Sindh, respectively? And what was discussed in Imran Khan’s meeting with the military chief, Qamar Bajwa? When the next elections will be held? Are we heading towards early elections?
A senior intelligence officer, who frequently interacts with journalists in the capital, believes that the Panama case verdict and ‘Dawn leaks’ probe report, which may benefit PTI’s Imran Khan may not be released anytime sooner and may be delayed to a much longer period, spanning over several months.
The legal fraternity, however, sees the Supreme Court issuing the much-awaited verdict in a week or two.
“If you go by the day-to-day hearings which the honourable judges conducted in this case, the judgement should have been announced by now,” observes Ali Zafar, former chief of the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA).
But, he says, “I see it being announced this week or the next because it has already been much delayed.”
Another barrister, hailing from the ruling party and who worked closely with a defence council in the case, thinks that the verdict will be announced by mid-April.
Zafar, however, said that the impact of the judgement is debatable.
“I think the court will form a commission to further probe the allegations. It can also record some observation, which can impact the prime minister, but of course we can’t predict this at this stage,” Zafar said.
“If the commission is formed, this will impact the PML-N’s popularity adversely. Politically speaking, it has already damaged the ruling party’s rapport because a number of people now believe ‘there was some sort of corruption’.”
“It all depends, how they play with it,” says senior political analyst Sohail Warraich.
“This is very important point in time. If a clear-cut verdict comes out of Supreme Court, it will finish either PML-N or PTI and then new pro- and anti-establishment parties will emerge,” he said, adding that it was the reason why many people think that the court will rule something in the middle.
“In this scenario, the party which succeeds to interpret the decision well in their favour will get the maximum benefit,” he said.
According to Warraich, all political parties were already embarked upon an election campaign, as the PPP was desperately trying to snatch some ground in Punjab and the PML-N is out to deny possible gains to PTI in Sindh.
“PTI will also be benefited from Imran Khan’s recent meeting with General Bajwa, and if the SC verdict hits Nawaz Sharif, nobody will let him win next elections.”
Rasul Bukhsh Rais, a professor of political science at LUMS, thinks the election season has approached. “The country is going into election mode very soon.”
“Even if the incumbent government goes for elections in March-April next year, that is not far, and both major parties PML-N and PPP would have to campaign hard to fight the corruption allegations.”
“This situation benefits PTI,” he says.
PTI’s Shafqat Mehmood, however, is reluctant to say anything clearly.
“The judgement on Panama case may be announced this week, but we don’t know exactly. We can only speculate,” he says. “We are confident it will be in our favour because we have built a very strong case. Whether it will lead to an early elections or not, it will be determined only after its announcement.”
“But we are geared up for election and will win it completely, no matter how early it takes place,” Mehmood claimed.
According to PML-N’s Senator Abdul Qayyum, the court is taking its time to give a unanimous verdict “which is very hard in the given circumstances”.
“The court can’t pass a judgement on public perception, it has to ensure merit and justice,” Qayyum says, adding that whatever the verdict will be, it will cast serious implications.
The government is mulling two options in case the judgement dents PM’s popularity: go to elections and attain fresh mandate from the people or appoint any male or ‘female’ member of the party as the new PM and continue with its agenda. “After all, we will still have a majority in parliament.”
