ISLAMABAD: Terming the present situation in Afghanistan “a possibly managed chaos”, speakers at a seminar on Thursday questioned that when the war was bringing so much money, why the beneficiaries would want it to stop.
The session ’16 Years of US Presence in Afghanistan: Objectives, Strategies and Emerging Scenario’ at Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) in Islamabad was addressed by veteran journalist and analyst on Afghan affairs Rahimullah Yousafzai, National Security Division former secretary Ambassador (r) Mohammad Sadiq and IPS Executive President Khalid Rahman.
The session was attended by a number of analysts, researchers, diplomats and officials of the government departments concerned.
Talking about the likelihood of America’s future presence in Afghanistan, Ambassador (r) Sadiq said that the stay would always remain temporary but the duration of that ‘temporary period’ may never be defined. He was certain that the US would continue to stay in Afghanistan either through contractors or through the troops, as in case of withdrawal of US-led forces, the Afghan armed forces on their own would not be able to take up the war.
Commenting on the American policies in Afghanistan since its invasion of the country 16 years ago, the speaker said that the only thing consistent about them was “inconsistency”. “Their objectives were always unknown, resources not managed, and sometimes it even felt that the situation was more like a managed chaos in order to extend the stay.”
Sadiq said that ‘unity’ was sorely missing in the Afghan Unity Government. “Most ruling elites in Afghanistan had their families and stakes outside the country and would waste no time in escaping abroad if anything goes bad.”
He said the Afghan elite class would also never want US to leave because of their high stakes in the chaos, which benefits them. He shared a surprising fact that even the civil society of Afghanistan – which essentially is supposed to be against foreign occupation – supports American presence in the country due to their vested interests. “When the war brings so much money, why would one want to stop it?” he said.
He viewed that the present situation was not due to the strength of the Taliban but because of US’s own flawed policies. It would have been better to address the people who were joining the Taliban out of grievances and not because of the ideology, he said.
Earlier, Rahimullah Yousafzai stated that 16 years after the US invasion of Afghanistan there was another military surge taking place in the country after the Bush and Obama surges. “The strength of US troops has risen up to 11,000 and may go up to 14,000. With the contribution of NATO troops the numbers could rise up to 20,000 and there is much likelihood that the B-52 bombers would return to the war scene. Bombings through air raids in Afghanistan, like done in 2001-02, would certainly mean civilian casualties and more sympathies and recruitment for the Taliban.”
He said that 16 years ago, the Taliban were apparently defeated within eight to nine weeks but managed to survive and were now strongest ever since losing power.
“They have also gained strength in northern, western and central Afghanistan where they were traditionally weak. They are still predominantly Pashtun but now there are also Uzbek, Turkmen and Tajik Taliban.”
He also claimed that the Taliban were no more internationally isolated like before and were now being politically and materially supported by many countries, including Russia and Iran.
He further informed that today the casualty figures were highest in the 16-year war, as at least 31 Afghan soldiers and police plus nine civilians were killed every single day. “Last year, 6,000 security personnel and 3,500 others were killed, however only 16 US soldier were among the dead.”
Published in Daily Times, October 6th 2017.
