Iran’s relative insularity from the global wave of terrorism was disrupted through the recent attacks on the country’s parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Imam Khomeini, the founder of Islamic Republic. The Islamic State (IS) or Daesh claimed responsibility of the attacks that killed 12 people and injuring scores of others. The selection of targets was highly symbolic as they were aimed at the foundations of the post 1979 Iranian order. These attacks in other words were targeted at Iranian society and its state. The Parliament symbolises Iranian political system and Khomeni’s mausoleum is thronged by thousands daily.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the powerful militia tasked to protect the regime and the republic, accused Saudi Arabia and Washington for instigating the attacks.
It is no secret that the IS and its ideological framework considers Shia Muslims as heretics. This is also a view shared by strains of Wahabi ideology that Saudi Arabia upholds. Iran’s power in the Middle East has grown since the US invasion of Iraq; and its relentless support to Assad’s regime in Syria. IS emerged in Iraq and has been active in Syria; and Iran-backed militias are battling IS in that region. So the IS claim makes sense. The audacious attacks also caught Iranian security apparatus unprepared and exposed intelligence failure. Similar to Turkey, it seems, IS has taken its regional battle to Iranian homeland. In a way, this denotes a response to Iran’s regional overreach.
If past is any guide, Iranian security apparatus will swiftly uncover the planners behind the attack and prosecute them. In recent years, Iran has responded to terrorist attacks with retaliation by apprehending and then executing those involved in facilitating the attackers. The security capabilities of Iranian regime have also been beefed up in the past years.
In Iran’s neighbourhood – Afghanistan and to some extent in Pakistan – the IS has been expanding its network. Similarly, IS presence in Iraq enables the terror outfit to move across the border into Iran with collaboration of local networks.
IS has put Iran on notice, that its regional manoeuvres won’t go unchallenged. Tehran, though, firmly believes that its regional rivals and the US are behind attacks. Yet, attacks in the capital of world’s only Shia-majority nation, by a Sunni militant group is a reminder of the sectarian nature of conflict in the Middle East.
Given the sectarian nature of increasing instability, reaction of Iran in coming days and weeks would be instructive. The response of Saudi-led Sunni nations will define the contours of regional interactions in near future. At a time when Gulf Cooperation Council nations are embroiled in a diplomatic crisis over Qatar’s perceived intransigence, attack in Iran complicate the regional politics. Uncertainty will deepen instability.
US President Donald Trump, in a Trumpseque move, while condemning the attacks also reminded Iranian regime of pitfalls of supporting terrorists in the region. The new administration in the US has thrown its weight behind the Saudi sphere of influence in the Middle East. This will only worsen the sectarian tensions.
All of this complicates the situation for Pakistan. This will be a great test for the country’s leadership in the coming months and years. The portents however are not that good. With Pakistan’s former Army Chief leading a Saudi alliance and Iran’s unfriendly statements in recent weeks, the country needs a serious deliberation. Pakistan is a hybrid state and at least one fourth of its Muslim population adheres to Shia faith. The country has been a battleground for sectarian violence that came in handy for Al Qaeda and now its progenitor, the Islamic State. Pakistan cannot afford to acquire a partisan character, petrodollars and ambitions notwithstanding.
